SGX Share Golden Agri Resources movements of the day

• CPO prices holding up
• Expects production growth closer to 20%
• Few near term catalysts

House View on CPO Outlook Recently Upgraded

The Malaysian Palm Oil Board released data yesterday that showed an 8.8% MoM rise in Malaysia’s palm oil stocks, a 0.9% decline in palm oil production while exports were up 6.4%. Recall that our view on CPO price outlook had been bearish, given the higher CPO production expected in 2017, sustained low oil prices, and healthy global alternative oilseed production weighing on overall oilseed prices.

Recently, OCBC Treasury Research revised their CPO outlook from MYR2,250 to MYR2,600/MT by year-end, mainly due to the fall in crude oil production levels especially seen in Malaysia for the month of Jun, and overall demand for palm oil was deemed healthy in the first seven months of 2017.

This estimate also lies within Golden Agri’s anticipations of around US$600-700/MT, underpinned by expectations of demand and restocking by key markets including China and India. Note that these supply and demand factors have supported CPO prices, with prices up ~4% for the past month.

Long Term Initiatives are in Place

As of 2Q17, the group has seen good production growth and expects FY17 production to be closer to a ~20% growth along with largely steady prices. While their estates’ average age of ~16 years (including plasma) is often considered as one of the oldest among plantation peers, we acknowledge the group’s initiatives to sustain growth in the longer term. This includes having two clones of high-yielding oil palm planting material that could potentially increase yields to above Indonesia’s industry average yields.

Replanting activities with the higher-yielding seeds may accelerate next year and could help them attain a favorable age profile. In addition, the group is also looking to improve long-term margins for the downstream segment, via strengthening the integration and efficiency along the supply chain.

Product portfolio continues to extend alongside increasing sales of palm-based refined products, while capacity is expanding in areas such as for kernel crushing in South Kalimantan.

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Share Market Previews: It Is Possible to Survive a Currency Depreciation ?

Since that fateful day when Britons voted for Brexit a year ago, the British Pound (GBP) has fallen by 11.8% against US Dollars. Worries about Singaporean companies' investments in UK were raised in the aftermath of the vote. However, the fall in GBP was small fry to one Singaporean company which faced much larger currency depreciation in the countries it invested in. The company is Food Empire, which derived 58% of its revenue from Russia and 13% from Ukraine in 2013. 

In Mar 2014, Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine. International sanctions on Russia followed suit. Both the Russian Ruble (RUB) and Ukraine Hryvnia (UAH) fell against major currencies. Fig. 1 below shows the fall in RUB (blue line), UAH (red line) and GBP (orange line) against USD since Mar 2014. At the lowest point in Feb 2016, RUB fell by 60% while UAH fell by 70% against USD. In comparison, GBP's fall of 24% against USD over the same period appears mild. 

Fig. 1: Fall of RUB and UAH against USD

Food Empire, which derives the majority of its revenue from Russia and Ukraine, saw its earnings fell from a gain of USD11.3M in FY2013 to a loss of USD13.6M in FY2014. However, despite the continued depreciation of RUB and UAH, earnings began to recover for Food Empire. In FY2015, it narrowed the loss from USD13.6M to USD0.1M. By FY2016, it had recovered to a gain of USD13.8M, which was even more than in FY2013, even though neither RUB nor UAH had recovered to their previous values against USD.

Likewise, Food Empire's share price also followed its earnings. The share price fell from $0.535 in Dec 2013 to a low of $0.205 in Jan 2016 before staging a spectacular recovery to a high of $0.765 in May 2017. 

Fig. 2: Food Empire's Share Price Performance

When a currency depreciates in value relative to other currencies, there are usually 2 impacts -- accounting and economic. The accounting impact means that all assets, liabilities and cash flows denominated in that currency are worth less. However, such impact on assets and liabilities are usually one-off, unless the currency continues to depreciate.

The economic impact means that the real purchasing power of consumers in that country reduces and consumers are not able to afford as many as before the products that companies sell. However, such effects will also readjust themselves over time. When a currency depreciates, imports become more expensive and the real purchasing power of its consumers reduces. However, at the same time, exports also become cheaper and exporters can sell more products overseas and increase their earnings. The net effect of a currency depreciation is that imports will decrease while exports will increase, thus increasing the current account surplus of the country. Over time, a part of this surplus will be spent within the country, leading to a recovery of the real purchasing power of its consumers. Hence, eventually, the profits of companies selling products in the country will also recover.

Having said the above, not all companies will survive a currency depreciation. Those companies with large debts denominated in foreign currencies would have difficulties repaying the debts which have become much more expensive in local currencies. To avoid such situations, companies need to hedge their foreign currency exposure, either by entering into a currency swap or by holding foreign assets denominated in the same currency. For example, if you take a GBP-denominated loan to buy a property in the UK, the effect of the currency depreciation on the property and the loan will offset each other if the loan quantum matches the property price.

Thus, although a currency depreciation will lead to immediate losses for companies invested in a particular country, eventually, prices within the country will readjust and the companies could make normal profits again.

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