EUR / USD: Decrease On A Purchase - Danske Bank

According to Danske Bank's analysts, the US dollar was weakening against the euro, which continues to buy on the Euro / USD scope.

Key Quotes 

"The US dollar has been falling rapidly in 2018 and three factors have put the dollar more emphasis on this week: Treasury Secretary Steven Mannuchin commented," Weak dollar is good for us. " . And on Thursday, an alleged Shahrukh ECB expressed strong views on the development of the euro area. "

"Although we disagree with the fact that a 'weak dollar policy' is something new because Trump had occupied the presidential seat, we believe that the euros have fallen in comparison to the US dollar."

"Both portfolios flows as well as existing account flows are in support of EUR / USD, while we are closing prices of EUR / USD at the fair level (our pricing model suggests 1.29 for cross), we Emphasizes that the strong force is driving the pair through the portfolio flow to both the rising demand for euro assets and the balance of the payment flow. Due to continuous current account surplus, it is continuing to buy on EUR / USD, in our view. "

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USD / JPY - Downside Risks As Big - Society Generale

Despite the fall in the US dollar, the greenback is still seen as an overlapping currency, while the Euro is considered to be cheap. However, Kit Juk of Societe Generale says, "Exceptionally cheap prime currency is that which is linked to bond yields, and which would be the winner of high yield, it would create a risk to take the risk".

Japanese Yen T seems to fit into the bill. A rebound (61.8% FBR RP-No rally in September) in the USD / JPY pair of 110.15 came out steam at an altitude of 113.39 am yesterday. At present, the pair is rapidly losing the height, the 0.50 percent fall is at 110.50, although the US 10-year Treasury yield reached the highest level of 2.64 percent in 40 months.

The relationship between US Dollar / JPY and yield has broken, and around the JPY, the bid tone fears that (potentially) government shutdown risks can destabilize the properties.

"America's yield is upwards of 2017 because the concern of the partial government shutdown has come under pressure from strong growth, so far, the risk feeling has not been affected." However, if the risks in the market are unfavorable (due to rising yields and/or government shutdown), then there is a possibility of Japanese yen spike.

One researcher has said that "The above room is decreasing in USD / JPY and the bigger the negative risk is as big (the proper value is about 100)."

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Euro / USD dollar consolidates weekly profits, closest to December 2014

Euro among top artists on ECB and German politics The US dollar consolidates the weekly deficit remains under pressure. 

The Euro / USD pair was stable above 1.2120, thereby strengthening the import daily and weekly gain.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank's latest meeting and on Friday, development in German politics increased the euro across the board. Euro / USD dollar also received an impulse from the weak US dollar. Growing American yield was offset by this step in European bonds, so the greenback was ineffective to gain from the bond market.

"While the release of ECB minutes was an important contributory factor behind the latest surge in EUR / USD, this move also encouraged another release of benign American inflation data," said Rabobank analysts.

During the US session, the Euro / USD reached 1.2155, which is the highest level in three years. After this, support above 1.2110 pulled back. As it was written, it was trading on Friday at 1.2135, there were one hundred pips on Friday.

Further Advantages?

This pair is about to close above the height of 2017, which could signal a greater profit from a technical perspective than the medium term. On the fundamental side, the ECB has mentioned that it may consider changing its guidance from the beginning of 2018, which leads to some kind of generalization, this step looks confident in the Eurozone economy and the Euro is the first It has only increased. The monetary policy expectations from the Fed and the ECB are finally united?

"Our relatively cautious approach to US inflation and the Fed policy, together with the enthusiasm of the market for the pricing of the ECB's QE policy, supports our approach that the Euro / USD continues this year ahead of prospects. We see a step towards the 1.24 field by the end of the year ", said Rabobank analyst.

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Technical Analysis of Japanese Yen: USD/JPY Still Weakness Not Yet Proven

Due to this weakness are subject to debate. And in fact it may appear difficult for the class with the Federal Reserve's forecast because the world's most influential central bank and provocative effects - the highest tax deduction for a limited-generation one. However, at the moment it is a fact and this chart will appear to confirm it.

US Dollar / JPY recently failed in its final form, where its last hope was expected. Compared to the peak of the December 21, 113.65 points, the recent high and near-last match of the mid-December of 113.74 dollars has been spent in the last 9 days or even fall, but the brothers have been examined in the 112.05 area, then again From, where the last important slide ended.

Of course this week, the weekend will continue to see the level of trade in the fading holiday season, and before we can see where the heart of the market is in fact, however, there is a sign that we can now read. And it does not look very promising for the US dollar bulls.

We can see the earnings of a doom form on the daily chart, with proper verification for our daily upper and lower limitations. The sadness for the dollar bulldos can mean that weakness is here to stay, a penance is known as the continuing pattern, which means that the market action created before it should start play once. As you can see from the chart above the preceding action USD / JPY falls from the highest of late October and beginning of November.

If this pseudo stays valid then we can hope for further weakness, when a possible first bear target was supported in the 110s at the end of November. But can wait unlimited and can take a look at next week's action to judge the real market mood.

Meanwhile, the Euro is growing very fast against the Japanese currency. In recent sessions, the UR / JPY has challenged and then broke up on a wider trading range, in which all action was taken in the middle of September. With all current optimism coming over the economy of the Eurozone, this growth appears to be a solid fundamental basis.

However, it has been very fast and the euro is moving towards the overflowing area. However, there is little reason to estimate that the range breaks will be invalid at any time soon, it may be necessary for some time to say that this is really strong because we believe in the current daily chart.