Saturday 20 January 2018

USD / JPY - Downside Risks As Big - Society Generale


Despite the fall in the US dollar, the greenback is still seen as an overlapping currency, while the Euro is considered to be cheap. However, Kit Juk of Societe Generale says, "Exceptionally cheap prime currency is that which is linked to bond yields, and which would be the winner of high yield, it would create a risk to take the risk".

Japanese Yen T seems to fit into the bill. A rebound (61.8% FBR RP-No rally in September) in the USD / JPY pair of 110.15 came out steam at an altitude of 113.39 am yesterday. At present, the pair is rapidly losing the height, the 0.50 percent fall is at 110.50, although the US 10-year Treasury yield reached the highest level of 2.64 percent in 40 months.

The relationship between US Dollar / JPY and yield has broken, and around the JPY, the bid tone fears that (potentially) government shutdown risks can destabilize the properties.

"America's yield is upwards of 2017 because the concern of the partial government shutdown has come under pressure from strong growth, so far, the risk feeling has not been affected." However, if the risks in the market are unfavorable (due to rising yields and/or government shutdown), then there is a possibility of Japanese yen spike.

One researcher has said that "The above room is decreasing in USD / JPY and the bigger the negative risk is as big (the proper value is about 100)."

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